The U.S. marketplace is changing rapidly -- more choices, more
pricing information, a growing base of consumers with disparate tastes
and spending habits. For automakers, purveyors of one of the most
expensive durable goods available, the change will be constant as well.
The industry prospered following the post-World War II baby boom, but
was roiled by volatile fuel prices and federal safety requirements that
followed. Competition from Asian and European automakers is intensifying
for Detroit automakers. Now, the nation's changing social structure and
diversifying population is influencing the way cars and trucks are being
designed and marketed. To get a fix on the future, The Detroit News
asked experts in demographics, industrial design, marketing and American
culture to give their vision of the automotive road ahead.
Your car is the message: So sexy beats utilitarian
Dr. G. Clotaire Rapaille
Founder of Archetype Discoveries, a consulting firm.
In times of crisis and uncertainty,
America sees a strong resurgence of archetypal buying behavior and
spending habits.
This behavior functions at three unique levels. The "reptilian
brain," which is related to survival and reproduction, the "limbic
brain," which is emotional and the "cortex," which is intelligent,
rational and logical.
We are at a time when the return of the reptilian consumer is
obvious. When the two World Trade Center towers fall, we buy a Hummer.
In times of confusion and uncertainty, customers are going to need
and demand even stronger, more powerful and clear brands. Brands which
respect their DNA -- or "secret code" -- are going to be successful.
Brands which try everything and attempt to appeal to everyone are going
to lose.
A Cadillac should be a Cadillac, not an almost-Mercedes or
almost-BMW. By recapturing their "archetypal identity," seemingly lost
brands will regain market share.
In the future, consumers are going to need three basic attributes to
buy a car.
First, a very strong identity is paramount. From a distance, people
should be able to decipher and easily recognize it. If you need to read
the badge up close, the brand has not been successful. There are
numerous examples of automotive models with strong identities: PT
Cruiser, Hummer.
A very clear message is also critical. A car is a message. What is
the message? I'm a soccer mom (minivan). I'm looking for a girl (red
convertible, mid-life crisis). In times of crisis, more than ever, the
message should be reptilian and survival. For example, the Hummer (I'm
ready to fight). The PT Cruiser (don't mess with me -- Al Capone).
Finally, a successful brand must deliver consistency. All of the
elements of the brand -- the design, the dealership, service,
commercials -- should reinforce the message and the identity.
Most consumers do not just buy a car, they purchase a particular
model to belong to a group sharing the same identity (they tried that
with Saturn).
People are tired of boring cars designed because of favorable trade
agreements, advantageous currency exchange rates, or federal fuel
economy requirements. Ford Motor
Co. will not succeed by trying to make cars appealing only to the
cortex. People are still in love with cars. The problem is that most of
our cars are not in love with people (they are too cortex-boring). So we
will see the return of the very sexy car.
Automotive designers are now working hard to get people to say WOW! I
want this car! Why? I don't know and I don't need to know. I just want
it.
This is where the future of cars is going in America. More reptilian
sexy cars and trucks, not more boring, fuel-efficient small anonymous
vehicles. Why?
The reptilian always wins.
Detroit needs to grasp tastes of Gen Xers and the car
sales.
Ann Fishman
A former analyst with the U.S. Census, an adjunct professor at New
York University and president of New Orleans-based Generational Targeted
Marketing Corp.
A major generational shift of power is
coming to the U.S. marketplace. Most of what's been happening in America
since the end of World War II is based on baby boomer values, attitudes
and lifestyles. Now, Generation X is threatening the "Me Generation"
values with not only a transition of power but more: a fresh change of
course.
Baby boomers are the 79 million who were born between 1943 and 1960.
Fewer than 68 million are alive today -- ranging in age from 42 to 59
years. Gen X represents the 93 million Americans who were born between
1961 and 1981. More than 83 million are alive today -- ranging in age
from 21 to 41.
Baby boomer values have been so pervasive in America for so long that
most of us have adopted their value system.
Now, we are in for a shock. Gen X is replacing boomer values with
their own values, attitudes, and lifestyles.
By 2008, Gen X, with help from the next younger generation, will be
able to out-vote all older generations combined.
Everything we know, everything we're used to, everything we do in
boomer style won't work once Gen X takes charge.
For example, Xers are America's most savvy shoppers. One Gen X
consumer researched the car he wanted to buy, figured out a win-win
price, then emailed an offer to all of the auto dealership managers, by
name, within two hundred miles. He got the car he wanted and a smart
dealership got the sale.
According to the 2000 census, the largest five-year age group is 35-
to 39-year-olds with 22.7 million people, representing 8.1 percent of
the total population.
Detroit automakers generally skip over this group of Gen Xers (and
all other Xers), jumping from boomers' beloved SUVs to cars like
Toyota's Scion, built to satisfy the needs of young Gen Ys.
Gen Xers don't just buy for themselves. This tech-savvy group greatly
influences buying decisions made by other generations.
If Detroit doesn't "get" them, they will miss the boat
With information king, consumers will rule
Dave Power
Chairman and chief executive officer of J.D. Power and Associates,
a market research firm.
The ever-increasing availability of
information, due largely to the Internet, is enabling consumers to
become more informed about their automotive purchase than ever before.
Today, consumers have higher expectations and are far more
knowledgeable when it comes to the negotiating process. As the
automotive industry becomes increasingly competitive and quality and
customer satisfaction continue to improve, the abundance of consumer
choices mean that the industry will face significant challenges ahead.
We have already seen that consumers who shop online for new vehicles
tend to pay up to $300 less for their purchase.
We also see a trend toward a streamlined negotiating process.
Automotive consumers are more educated on virtually all aspects of the
product before they enter the dealership. The abundance of sales and
pricing information available today helps to level the playing field
between consumers and dealers during price negotiations. Consumers now
have instant access to what used to be confidential pricing information,
while dealerships are staffing up their Internet departments more than
ever.
Although we are not to the point where price negotiation is a thing
of the past, certain retailers who have embraced non-negotiation price
models, such as Saturn, do very well in the area of sales satisfaction.
Over the years, Saturn has worked to eliminate this contentious issue
from the car-buying process. And this process is a key component of
overall customer satisfaction, which, as everyone knows, is based on
understanding consumer expectations and consistently meeting them.
Although automakers have made great strides in the past 20 years in
terms of vehicle quality and customer satisfaction, we are on the cusp
of significant consumer-driven change. Better access to customer
information and needs will ensure that the right vehicle is at the right
place at the right time. It will be important for this information to be
shared equally throughout the supply chain -- from vehicle designers,
suppliers and manufacturers, to vehicle distribution and sales.
This major change will eventually shift the balance of power toward
consumers and away from automotive manufacturers and dealers, as
consumers define more clearly the new vehicles they need and
manufacturers' respond to this demand.
This change may actually benefit dealers, since they are closest to
the customers. However, to take advantage of this shift, dealers will
have to do two things well. First, they must listen carefully and
respond to what their customers are saying about product needs, and
secondly, they must continue to be on the leading edge of the
information-technology revolution.
Vehicle time-sharing may gain traction soon
Michael Marsden
Expert on automotive and popular culture at Eastern Kentucky
University.
American's century old love affair with
the automobile has moved away from the monogamous
"one-family-car-fits-all" standard -- which dominated our culture for so
long -- to serial automotive relationships in order to better meet our
lifestyle and transportation needs.
More specifically, over the past few decades, U.S. motorists have
moved from outright ownership of a single vehicle, to owning two or
three vehicles, to leasing one or more vehicles, and now on to renting
vehicles regularly for special purposes.
In fact, a recent consumer poll, commissioned by Enterprise
Rent-A-Car, revealed that the majority of American motorists surveyed
have automotive needs which go beyond what can be satisfied by the
vehicles they own. That same poll revealed that when they attended a
class reunion they were more concerned about the vehicle they drove than
their marital status!
American motorists have for many years been making personal
statements with the cars they drive. In fact, some motorists have been
changing their cars just as they would change their clothes -- a formal
car for a formal event, a sports car for a leisure event, etc.
In the past we might have borrowed a specialty car from a friend or
relative. Leasing that high-end sports car was a way of making a
significant personal statement with only a limited financial commitment.
Renting a car to fit particular needs and functions provides ease of
statement and commitment. The highly symbolic nature of American
automotive culture allows us to "wear" our cars and to communicate with
each other about our social and economic status, real or imagined, and
to once again recapture the magic of the open road.
Looking to the future, "fractional ownership," or "time sharing" will
become popular, especially on high-dollar, special purpose vehicles. It
is similar to what happened in the world of private aircraft, where
fractional ownership has been common practice for some time.
For example, while many of us might not have a daily need for an SUV,
and in fact the larger ones might not even fit in our garage, we might
consider investing in an arrangement where we had use of a new SUV once
or twice a month.
With new purchase prices exceeding $30,000, $40,000, and even $50,000
in some cases, fractional ownership with a centralized maintenance
program could make excellent economic sense. We could "tame the
wilderness" once a month while retaining our economic decorum the rest
of the time.
There is no doubt that Americans love their cars, but that love
affair with day-to-day transportation can become unglamorous over time.
As a result, we will continue to look for ways to have occasional access
to other vehicles for special needs to help put adventure and fun back
into our automotive landscape.
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